Brazil, Latin America’s most populous country and the largest economy, goes to the polls in early October. However, whoever wins, the more consequential contest may be the one that follows: who will lead the left and the right once Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro leave the stage? This analysis—whose title references the American television series created by Jesse Armstrong and the 2024 Brazilian documentary directed by Petra Costa—aims to highlight the turbulent processes of political succession in present-day Brazil.
For two decades, Brazilian politics has been organized around these two figures. Lula’s leftist Workers’ Party (PT) built a hegemony on the left after taking the presidency in 2002. On the right, the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) led a broad coalition until 2018, when Jair Messias Bolsonaro, a former army captain, took control. Both movements tried–and failed–to move past their leaders when they were jailed (Lula for corruption, Bolsonaro for an attempted coup); both leaders remained the face of their coalitions, and the succession debate was postponed rather than resolved.
Starting with the right, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is the right’s top candidate, and with his father under house arrest, serving 27 years and three months, and barred from public office, he looks like the natural heir. But his position is less secure than it appears. He was never the first choice: his brother Eduardo, the expected successor, fled to the United States over the coup plot. Flávio nevertheless found a competitor in Michelle Bolsonaro, his father’s wife. She had built a ticket with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, until Jair Bolsonaro lost confidence in Tarcísio and withdrew his support. Even so, Michelle kept an independent power base: her ties to Neo-Pentecostal churches, a key constituency for the right, and her role as head of the PL’s women’s wing, which gave her a budget to travel the country and build local party structures.
Outside the family, the challenge is larger. Bolsonarism has grown beyond the Bolsonaros. Regional governors, especially if Flávio loses in October, and younger figures on the right will contest his leadership. A defeat could turn the succession from a family matter into an open competition.
Yet the problem of succession is not exclusive to the right. The left faces the opposite problem: too few heirs. After more than four decades at the head of the movement, Lula has left no obvious successor, largely by his own design. He prioritized governability over succession, most visibly by choosing center-right Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) as his 2022 running mate instead of a younger left-wing figure who could have gained national prominence. The PT has also struggled to show it is bigger than its founder. Fernando Haddad, the former finance minister, has technical achievements but lacks the mass charisma needed to mobilize voters.
Meanwhile, the figures with the most momentum, such as João Campos (PSB), Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Simone Tebet (PSB), all come from outside the PT. That forces the party into a dilemma: resign its historical role as first among equals and accept being led by an ally with a different ideological foundation, or defend its primacy and risk splitting the vote and handing the right a victory.
We do not know who will emerge victorious in the election on October 4, but we can anticipate a process both camps will share: they will have four years to settle who leads each coalition and prepare for the next race in 2030. We do not yet know what form leadership in either space will take—whether we will see new faces or power will shift back to familiar figures in Brazilian politics. But succession is inevitable there in the tropics.
About the authors:
Lucas Caceres Michelena
The views, positions, and conclusions expressed in Cefeidas Notebook belong exclusively to the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the official institutional stance of Cefeidas Group.